Democratic delegates up for grabs

Journalists think that the primary schedule favours Barack Obama for the next four weeks. Hillary Clinton may suffer a series of losses between today and March 4, when she is expected to win the popular vote in both Ohio and Texas.

Both are relatively delegate-rich states. But in the meantime, Obama is expected to build momentum by going on a tear from Louisiana through Wisconsin.

(Perhaps Obama can’t take Virginia and Maine for granted?)

Here is a list of the delegates up for grabs between now and March 4. (Adapted from The New York Times.) I distinguish between primaries and caucuses because the caucus format seems to give Obama an advantage for whatever reason.

State Type # Delegates
Saturday, Feb. 9
Louisiana primary 66
Nebraska caucus 31
Virgin Islands other 3
Washington caucus 97
Total: 197
Sunday, Feb. 10
Maine caucus 34
Tuesday, Feb. 12
D.C. primary 37
Maryland primary 99
Virginia primary 101
Total: 237
Tuesday, Feb. 19
Hawaii caucus 29
Wisconsin primary 92
Total: 121
Tuesday, March 4
Ohio primary 161
Rhode Island primary 32
Texas 2/3rds primary 228
Vermont primary 23
Total: 444

What is the current delegate count? Four days after Super Tuesday, the results are still hopelessly confused. What an arcane system! This blogger makes a labour-intensive effort to sort things out. Taniel ultimately concludes that Clinton and Obama are approximately tied. (I don’t think the calculation includes Clinton’s superdelegates.)

Which we already knew.

Also of note:  in a rather bizarre story, the Obama campaign allowed its projections for the upcoming primaries to fall into the hands of a reporter. Oops!

If those projections turn out to be accurate, the two candidates will continue to be deadlocked right through to the Democratic national convention. Superdelegates (party officials) may end up determining the nominee.

Which we already knew.

Maybe the Democrats should resort to rock, paper, scissors instead.


3 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. aaron
    Feb 09, 2008 @ 10:56:51

    Gee whillikers — for a couple of Canadians, you two sure are focused on the elections down here! Isn’t there anything interesting going on where you are? 😉


  2. Stephen
    Feb 09, 2008 @ 15:59:02

    Actually, there’s a good chance we’re heading into a federal election in Canada in April or May. We have a minority government, and it looks like the Conservatives and the Liberals are itching to bring this session of Parliament to a close and face the electorate.

    But what will change if the Conservatives get a majority next time, or the Liberals displace the Conservative government? Not a hell of a lot. All Canadian parties are centre-left. Distinguishing between them is a little like distinguishing Clinton’s policies from Obama’s.

    We don’t have a pro-torture party, or a “Let’s bomb Iran!” segment of the electorate. We already have universal health care and same sex marriage (given effect by a Parliamentary vote, after a series of court decisions pushing politicians in that direction). We have no law limiting abortion at any stage of pregnancy — which some people (including me) dislike, but no party proposes doing anything about it.

    No matter who wins the next election, we will get the status quo.

    Also note: I’m somewhat obsessive-compulsive. (Surprise!) When something captures my attention, I’m likely to get stuck there for weeks on end. I haven’t written anything for my theology blog for nearly two weeks now … which is bothering me, but I can’t seem to shift focus!

    Eventually, I’ll move on to another topic. The Democratic nomination process looks like it will drag on through June 7 and beyond. Even I can’t fixate on one topic for that long!


  3. Trackback: Emerging From Babel » Radio silence … and a book meme

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