Meanwhile, McCain

Most of us were paying no attention to the Republican primary in Pennsylvania. But Michael Crowley points out:

More than 117,000 people — or 16 percent of the GOP electorate — took the trouble to cast votes for Ron Paul tonight. And Huckabee got about 11 percent, leaving McCain at 74 percent. (That’s with 94 percent of the vote in.)

Evidently McCain still hasn’t sealed the deal among Republicans. Perhaps that’s why, with all the advantages he has right now, McCain still can’t break through the glass ceiling of 45% support nationally. Ross Douthat comments:

By all rights, this ought to be a peak time for McCain’s numbers — not the peak, necessarily, but certainly a high point. His right-wing critics are making nice with him, his favorable ratings are sky-high, and his opponents are too busy driving each other’s negative ratings upward to spend any time (or money, more importantly) putting a dent in his halo. …

Yet even with all this going for him, McCain’s poll numbers are bumping up against the same 45 percent ceiling that they’ve been hitting since December. If the election were held today — a pretty good day for McCain, all things considered — he’d probably lose to Obama, and might lose to Clinton as well.


1 Comment (+add yours?)

  1. Random
    Apr 24, 2008 @ 04:50:05

    “Evidently McCain still hasn’t sealed the deal among Republicans.”

    Two thoughts – firstly either Clinton or Obama would kill for 74% of the vote in a primary, and secondly Ron Paul’s supporters are hardly Republicans anyway. He’s run for president on the Libertarian party ticket in the past and has a small but highly vociferous fan club who follow him around wherever he goes. Oh, one final thought, given that the Republican nomination was settled weeks ago and the Pennsylvania result would have absolutely no effect on the outcome, I’m rather favourably surprised that over half a million people (i.e. about half as many as voted for Obama) still bothered to go down to a polling station and vote for him in what was a complete non-event otherwise.

    “Perhaps that’s why, with all the advantages he has right now, McCain still can’t break through the glass ceiling of 45% support nationally.”

    Actually, according to the tracking poll you linked to yesterday he’s on 46% against Obama and 47% against Clinton (one point ahead of the Democrat in each case), and the trend line is very slowly rising in both cases and he’s now regularly posting small leads instead of small deficits. It’s probably all still margin of error stuff though, and it’s not really safe to say much more than he probably is benefiting somewhat from the turmoil on the other side but things are still essentially tied.


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