… I’m worried.
Tonight we’ll find out how Obama and Clinton have fared in Indiana and North Carolina. The polls have been all over the place:
- In Indiana, Zogby has Obama up 45-43 (Zogby polls are notoriously unreliable) while Survey USA has Clinton up by 12.
- In North Carolina, Clinton’s internal polls reportedly show her within 5 points of Obama, whereas a blogger who is very familiar with the state is projecting a 17-point Obama blowout.
In both cases, I suspect a result somewhere in the middle is more likely. That is, Clinton by ~6 in Indiana and Obama by 8-10 in North Carolina.
But in fact, it’s hard to know what to expect. The Democratic electorate is volatile right now.
The Rev. Wright circus clearly hurt Obama in the short term. The Obama brand has been tarnished: unfairly, in my opinion, since no one with any brains ought to believe that he shares Wright’s “God damn America” sentiments.
Since repudiating Wright, Obama has partly rebounded. At least in the national polls, where he has now opened up a small lead over Clinton again. But I admit, I’m worried. Clinton consistently outperforms her poll results when people actually vote.
Worst case scenario: if Clinton’s margin in Indiana is greater than Obama’s margin in North Carolina, it would be a huge blow to Obama. Here’s hoping it isn’t as bad as all that!