This election may be over

Steve Lombardo of writes:

The economic situation has virtually ended John McCain’s presidential aspirations and no amount of tactical maneuvering in the final 29 days is likely to change that equation. …

The latest Gallup tracking poll shows Obama with a 7-point lead (50% to 43%), his largest since he was nominated at the Democratic Convention. Internals suggest that McCain is hemorrhaging with Independents, women (a group that temporarily moved toward him in late August and early September) and younger voters.

Additionally, there is a body of evidence growing that suggests that McCain’s unfavorable rating has picked up dramatically in the last 14 days. As perceptions of him have diminished, perceptions of Obama have improved. …

As of today we have Obama sitting comfortably with 264 electoral votes. [NB. Only six short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.]

McCain has only 163. It is very unlikely that any of the states we have put in the Obama column will switch to McCain in the coming weeks. Therefore, McCain has to win nearly all of the remaining toss-up states to win in November.

Here’s Lombardo’s electoral map. Click to see the full-sized version at

electoral map 08.10.07

The election campaign has four weeks to go. It’s still possible that something dramatic could happen to shake up the race:  possible but unlikely. Nate Silver comments:

McCain needs a game changer. Or two. Or three. Tonight’s debate, which features McCain’s preferred town hall format, might be his best remaining opportunity.

It’s true:  McCain is extraordinarily strong in town hall meetings. And Obama’s professorial detachment is not a good fit for a setting where the idea is to get up close and personal with voters.

So this is, indeed, McCain’s best opportunity to change the dynamic. But his personal brand is badly tarnished; and his performance during the period from Sept. 15 to 26 (when McCain responded erratically to the financial crisis) seems to have shifted the brass ring beyond his grasp.


3 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. James Pate
    Oct 07, 2008 @ 18:19:43

    The thing is that Obama didn’t respond that well to the financial crisis either. He didn’t get some from his side to support the bailout. Of course, then again, he didn’t suspend his campaign to try to solve it, either. When McCain did that, everyone was watching him to see what he would do.


  2. billarends
    Oct 08, 2008 @ 15:38:44

    The stats are changing look at side bar on

    Republicans 163
    Democrats 320
    Toss up 55


  3. nebcanuck
    Oct 08, 2008 @ 17:07:31

    The thing is that Obama didn’t respond that well to the financial crisis either. He didn’t get some from his side to support the bailout.

    I think it’s more about McCain’s voting record with Bush, rather than either of their reaction to the situation.

    Neither has the ability to do overmuch right now. But it seems pretty clear that the Dems are doing a good job of pinning McCain as the “same old, same old”. That’s where this crisis has been a turning point.


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